Supreme Court case could shift 19 House seats toward GOP
Caroline MolloyRepublicans could pick up as many as 19 congressional seats if the Supreme Court strikes down a key part of the Voting Rights Act in a major redistricting case argued Oct. 15.
The case, Louisiana v. Callais, stems from a dispute over whether Louisiana must create a second majority-Black congressional district under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 — a provision meant to protect minority voters from discrimination. In redistricting, Section 2 has led to the creation of “majority-minority districts,” designed to amplify minority voting power.
The case has now widened into a bigger question: whether Section 2 itself is constitutional. Louisiana officials contend that requiring states to consider race when drawing maps violates the 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause and the 15th Amendment’s ban on racial discrimination in voting.
In a short order issued Aug. 1, the justices instructed parties to be ready to address whether the “intentional creation of a second majority-minority congressional district violates the Fourteenth or Fifteenth Amendments to the U.S. Constitution.”
A ruling is expected by June 2026. The justices first heard Callais in March 2025 but deferred a decision and ordered a rehearing for Oct. 15.
If the court limits or overturns Section 2, Republicans could redraw as many as 19 districts nationwide, according to a report by Democratic-affiliated advocacy groups Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter Fund.
The report also said that, combined with ongoing GOP redistricting in states like Texas and Missouri, Republicans could secure up to 27 additional House seats compared with the 2024 map.
